The latest analysis from the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy shows that the United States is expanding fossil-fuel infrastructure at a rate not seen in ten years. At the same time, electricity demand is rising faster than any period in the past decade as data centers, manufacturing plants and electric vehicles connect to the grid. The report links this surge to policies of the current administration that favor fossil sources.
Fossil fuels still account for roughly sixty percent of U.S. electricity generation, but renewables have been gaining ground. In 2024 wind and solar together produced more power than coal for the first time, and solar represented eighty-one percent of all new generation capacity that year. Internationally, solar power has become the cheapest electricity option across most markets.
The administration’s energy agenda emphasizes increased drilling and limits on clean-energy projects. Officials have issued stop-work orders, blocked permits and withdrawn tax credits that previously supported wind and solar development. A public statement from the president reiterated a “drill, baby, drill” stance, positioning fossil fuels as the preferred source for power-hungry data centers.
Plans for new fossil-fuel capacity have risen sharply, climbing from five percent of all new electricity projects in 2024 to thirty percent by the second quarter of 2026, according to the report’s analysis of Energy Information Administration data. If the current trajectory persists, fossil-fuel projects could represent seventy percent of the development pipeline by 2030, with 68 gigawatts of capacity slated for construction,a 45 percent increase over plans six months earlier.
Renewable projects are being cancelled at a higher rate than fossil projects, with 4.9 percent of wind and solar proposals dropped compared with 2.9 percent of gas and coal plans. The report cautions that some of the projected demand from AI-driven data centers may be overstated, leaving a portion of the announced fossil-fuel capacity at risk of being abandoned.
Cost analyses show utility-scale solar and wind delivering electricity at roughly $68 to $69 per megawatt-hour, while new combined-cycle natural-gas plants average about $90 per megawatt-hour. Despite the higher price, fossil fuels remain vulnerable to market swings, especially after recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran. Both gas and coal facilities emit pollutants that raise health costs, and rising electricity bills reflect the broader need for grid upgrades and new generation assets.
The authors conclude that decisions made now will shape the cost, reliability and emissions profile of the U.S. grid for decades. “The U.S. power sector is at a new inflection point, with decisions made today shaping the cost, reliability, and emissions profile of the grid for decades to come,” the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy report states. Policy direction therefore determines whether the nation leans toward cheaper, cleaner energy or entrenches higher-emission fossil dependence.