A new analysis from the Houston Advanced Research Center warns that the rapid expansion of data centers in Texas could erase years of progress in air quality. The study models a scenario in which every planned facility connects to the state grid using the projected electricity mix. Within five years, the resulting emissions would be sufficient to nullify decades-long reductions in pollutants, according to the report released in October 2026.
Under that baseline, fine-particle emissions,commonly referred to as soot,would more than triple, reaching levels not seen since 2006. Nitrogen-oxide pollutants that contribute to smog would climb 136 percent, bringing concentrations close to those recorded in 2004. Carbon dioxide output, the primary driver of global warming, would rise 90 percent above the 2025 baseline. These three indicators together illustrate a potential reversal of the clean-air gains achieved over the past two decades.
The report emphasizes that the actual trajectory will hinge on how developers and utilities meet the soaring electricity demand. Some firms are constructing private power plants, while others are exploring on-site solar and wind installations. HARC evaluated three demand projections, acknowledging that many of the proposed sites remain speculative and could be abandoned. The choice between grid-sourced electricity and self-generated power will determine the magnitude of future emissions.
If data centers pair grid electricity with renewable generation built on their premises, nitrogen-oxide emissions could fall by as much as a factor of ten, according to the model. Conversely, developers that install on-site gas turbines to avoid lengthy grid interconnection times would generate the highest possible pollution levels. The analysis therefore presents a stark contrast between clean-energy integration and reliance on fossil-fuel backup, highlighting the policy leverage points for mitigating impact.
Texas already leads the United States in data-center capacity, with 26 gigawatts of existing or under-construction power draw. A Wood Mackenzie report from March notes that the state anticipates four times more proposed on-site generation capacity than any other state. Developers frequently opt for less efficient gas-turbine technology to accelerate construction schedules, a trend that amplifies the carbon and pollutant footprints of the burgeoning AI infrastructure.
The findings suggest that without decisive action to prioritize renewable power and to regulate on-site fossil-fuel installations, the data-center boom could negate the air-quality improvements achieved since the early 2000s. Policymakers, utilities, and technology firms face a narrow window to align capacity expansion with clean-energy targets, lest Texas experience a resurgence of soot and smog levels reminiscent of two decades ago.