China’s economy grew by 4.5 percent in the third quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, marking a rebound from a three-year low and an improvement over the previous three-month period. The figure sits at the lower bound of Beijing’s annual target range of 4.5-5 percent, giving policymakers some leeway to address lingering economic challenges.
Exports rose sharply, pushing the trade surplus toward a level that could surpass the record $1.2 trillion logged last year. Sales of high-tech goods increased by 14.3 percent, while official statistics showed production of batteries and industrial robots each expanding by more than 29 percent. The surge in overseas sales helped offset weak domestic consumption, although global trade tensions continue to cloud the outlook.
Oxford Economics researcher Sheana Yue said that manufacturing and high-tech exports have been the main drivers of the recent growth, even as investment and household spending remain subdued. She also noted that property investment fell by more than 20 percent in the first nine months compared with the previous year, underscoring the persistent slump in the real-estate sector.
Moody’s Analytics economist Dave Chia warned that the economy is increasingly dependent on a single external engine, namely export demand, to sustain growth. He pointed to rising consumer pessimism and stagnant wages as factors dampening domestic demand, while property investment and youth unemployment continue to weigh on spending. The data therefore highlight the vulnerability of growth to external shocks and trade uncertainties.
In September Beijing announced a package of support measures that includes lower interest rates for selected firms and subsidies aimed at property buyers, intended to stimulate activity. The move comes amid criticism from the United States and the European Union, which argue that cheap Chinese imports undermine their manufacturers. At the same time, analysts caution that the billions of dollars poured into AI infrastructure may not deliver the projected profits, adding another layer of risk to the recovery.