Milton Friedman warned that a genuine or imagined crisis can thrust fringe ideas into the mainstream, noting that “only a crisis, actual or perceived, produces real change.” Leading technologists now argue that artificial intelligence could generate such a crisis, with Bill Gates predicting that within ten years most tasks will no longer require human labor and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warning of widespread white-collar unemployment within five years. Even a mis-read of the threat could trigger a recession if investors deem AI a bubble.
One policy response gaining traction is a job guarantee that would provide a decent, meaningful wage to anyone willing to work. Proponents argue that a public employment option would shield millions from the financial and psychological harms of joblessness while mobilising labour for projects such as infrastructure upgrades, climate adaptation, elder care and childcare. The guarantee is envisioned as a safety net that also contributes to societal goals.
The idea of a guaranteed right to work has deep roots. Article 23 of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights affirms the right to employment and protection against unemployment. During the 1930s Great Depression, the United States created the Works Progress Administration, employing millions in public works that built roads, bridges and public facilities. More recent examples include programmes launched in France, India and Argentina that echo the same principle.
Economists assess the costs and benefits of a job guarantee differently. Max Kasy of Oxford, who evaluated a recent Austrian experiment, said that while wages represent an expense, the programme saves money by reducing unemployment, disability and early-retirement benefits and by generating tax revenue from employed participants. Bard College economist Pavlina Tcherneva added that participants also enjoy social and psychological gains that are difficult to quantify but essential for overall wellbeing.
In the United States, Representative Ayanna Pressley reintroduced a resolution that would fund a federal job guarantee paying at least $25 an hour, with adjustments for inflation. The proposal would channel workers into sectors such as disaster preparedness, child and senior care, and public art projects modeled on the historic Federal Art Project. A separate bill, backed by Representatives Greg Casar, Valerie Foushee and Sara Jacobs, would levy a tax on large AI firms based on the higher of their data-token value or AI product revenue, with rates rising if unemployment spikes. Casar said AI CEOs themselves predict massive job loss and that the government must act to protect workers.
A pilot in Cleveland, Ohio, called Universal Basic Employment is testing a different approach by subsidising wages in existing private-sector jobs. Founder Devin Cotten explained that the programme aims to achieve an “autonomous wage”, the level at which workers no longer qualify for most safety-net benefits, set at just over $27 per hour in that city. The one-year pilot costs about half a million dollars and splits the wage boost with employers, raising driver pay from $15 to a higher level while reducing employer labour costs. Cotten says higher wages, rather than isolated benefits, help workers build credit, qualify for mortgages and keep money circulating in the local economy.