The international system is moving toward a genuine multipolar configuration, with several major powers and regional blocs vying for influence. At the same time, rapid advances in artificial intelligence are amplifying both existing and emerging threats, creating a landscape where no single nation can impose order. Analysts note that this combination of dispersed power and transformative technology challenges traditional security assumptions and raises the prospect of unmanaged global crises.
In the defence arena, inexpensive drones and AI-enhanced targeting systems are eroding conventional hierarchies. The United States, despite its extensive arsenal, has been unable to compel a financially strained theocracy in Iran to comply, while Russia’s attempt to dominate Ukraine has stalled despite superior resources. These episodes illustrate how advanced technology can blunt the ability of even the most powerful states to translate material strength into decisive control.
Beyond the battlefield, emerging technologies heighten the danger of transnational catastrophes. A concealed laboratory could generate a pathogen more lethal than COVID-19, while a lone hacker might unleash a crippling cyber assault from a private garage. Frontier AI models risk evolving beyond human oversight, and the same tools could lower barriers to assembling nuclear or biological weapons without detection. Such hazards ignore borders, rendering traditional deterrence ineffective.
The only viable path to security, according to the United Nations, lies in reinforced multilateral frameworks and enforceable norms. The World Health Organization recently adopted a Pandemic Agreement aimed at bolstering collective preparedness, while the UN General Assembly passed the BBNJ treaty to safeguard high-seas biodiversity. The Security Council, during a September debate, signalled a commitment to address AI-related security concerns, urging stronger global oversight.
Norway has positioned itself as a catalyst for reform, declaring respect for international law a core security priority. In September, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb launched a joint Call for Action to create global oversight of advanced AI models, attracting participation from numerous countries. The initiative seeks to translate multilateral intent into concrete mechanisms, illustrating how smaller states can leverage collective will to shape governance in a world where no single power can dominate.