Goliath Super Intelligence
IndustryOctober 28, 20262 min read

Amazon set to earn billions from Anthropic IPO while VCs see modest stakes

Amazon’s $6.2 billion convertible notes, now valued at about $98 billion, plus a $10 billion preferred-stock purchase, give it a far larger upside than venture investors, while Anthropic has pledged $110 billion of AWS spend.

Anthropic’s upcoming public offering is set to generate multi-billion dollar returns for its early backers. Venture firms such as Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures and Spark Capital hold positions that Bloomberg values at roughly $14 billion, yet none exceed the 5 percent threshold required for inclusion among principal stockholders. At a private valuation of $965 billion, a one-percent stake approaches $10 billion, making even modest percentages highly valuable.

Strategic partners own the larger slices of Anthropic, with Amazon emerging as the foremost financial beneficiary. The cloud giant first pledged up to $4 billion in 2023 and subsequently injected additional capital through convertible notes rather than equity. As of June 30, the notes total $6.2 billion in principal, representing the company’s entire debt load.

Amazon’s own filings place the fair-value of those notes at $97.9 billion, a dramatic rise from the original principal. Anthropic records the upward adjustment under a line titled “change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs,” which summed to $72.4 billion for the first half of 2026. The entry is non-cash, meaning the company’s balance sheet reflects a large liability without any immediate outflow of funds.

Conversion rights allow Amazon to exchange the notes for up to 1.84 billion Anthropic shares, though a cap restricts its ownership to 12 percent of the partially diluted share count. The cloud provider may waive this limit, and any unconverted portion would remain outstanding for later quarters. In addition, Amazon purchased $10 billion of non-voting preferred stock in the second quarter, bringing its total investment in Anthropic to roughly $18 billion.

Anthropic has also committed to spend at least $110 billion on Amazon Web Services over the next decade, securing a long-term revenue stream for the retailer. Google, another cloud contender, once held roughly 14 percent of Anthropic according to court filings reported by The New York Times, and later invested an additional $10 billion, with its current stake estimated at about 5.6 percent.

Both Amazon and Google stand to gain substantially from the IPO and from ongoing cloud contracts, while venture firms anticipate sizable payouts despite holding smaller percentages. The S-1 filing notes that cloud providers also develop competing AI models, a factor that could create divergent interests between Anthropic and its investors. Nonetheless, the prospect of converting massive note holdings into equity positions makes the tech giants the likely biggest beneficiaries.

Sources

  1. VCs will make billions on Anthropic's IPO, but Amazon is set to make much (much) more TechCrunch

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